DOW JONES PREDICTIONS

Below is the result of the 1997- 2002 Dow Jones prediction contest and the DJ and NASDAQ guesstimates for 12-31-03:
                          DJ Dow Jones Nas Nasdaq   DJ Dow Jones NAS Nasdaq Dow Jones Nasdaq  
  12/31/97 FIN   12-31-98 FIN   12-31-99 FIN   FIN 12-31-00   FIN 12-31-01 FIN 12-31-01   FIN 12-31-02 FIN 12-31-02 12-31-03 12-31-03  
PREDICTOR GUESS PL   GUESS PL   GUESS PL   PL GUESS   PL GUESS PL GUESS   PL GUESS PL GUESS GUESS GUESS PREDICTOR
                                                 
Baker, John 7156 4   8888 2         7 13,230   6 11,623 11 3,572   17 12,345 17 2,453 9,066 1,445 Baker, John
Beeuwsaert, Dick                                   11 10,940 5 2,120     Beeuwsaert, Dick
Borror, Dave 6950 11                                           Borror, Dave
Brandenburg, Scott 6500 16                                           Brandenburg, Scott
Carman, Nolie                                   4 10,519 11 2,202     Carman, Nolie
Davis, Jerry                   8 13,320   11 13,150 6 2,865   15 11,324 9 2,166 8,742 1,400 Davis, Jerry
Engel, Gail 7015 6                                           Engel, Gail
Geisler, Wayne 7150 5   7200 9   8,400 19         5 11,200 3 2,300               Geisler, Wayne
Hamilton, Gerry 7200 3         9,500 16                               Hamilton, Gerry
Hammerstrom Dick 6200 17                               16 11,750 3 2,100 9,200 1,510 Hammerstrom Dick
Hensley, Phil 7885 1   8448 6   10,765 2   1 12,334   3 10,468 1 2,179   5 10,583 10 2,170 8,123 1,301 Hensley, Phil
Higgins, Rick 6712 13               4 12,803             7 10,687 8 2,134     Higgins, Rick
Johnson, Mark             9,550 15                               Johnson, Mark
Lang, Randy                                   2 10,227 1 1,927 8,888 1,555 Lang, Randy
Manzey, Al 6999 9   7999 8   9,191 17         1 10,401 4 2,401   1 10,090 2 1,990 8,301 1,350 Manzey, Al
Moore, Fred             9,725 13                               Moore, Fred
Moore, Tim             9,635 14                   3 10,412 13 2,210 9,857 1,785 Moore, Tim
Nash, Judy 6666 15                                           Nash, Judy
Ryan, Atticus                                   8 10,877 6 2,127     Ryan, Atticus
Scholl, Bob 7004 7                   2 10,404 2 2,244           9,000 1,410 Scholl, Bob
Slagle, Jerry 6894 12   8350 7   10,200 7   9 13,350   8 12,200 10 3,370   13 10,945 15 2,308 9,150 1,648 Slagle, Jerry
Slagle, Jim Calif 6964 10   8500 4   9,850 11   10 14,332   10 12,502 7 2,866   9 10,885 16 2,350 8,883 1,443 Slagle, Jim Calif
Slagle, Jim Ohio       8600 3   10,100 10   2 12,432   4 11,151 5 2,593   11 10,940 7 2,132 8,550 1,482 Slagle, Jim Ohio
Slagle, John 7004 7   8458 5   11,018 1   12 14,808   9 12,331 9 3,187   6 10,653 12 2,204 9,101 1,577 Slagle, John
Slagle, Nelson 7442 2   8904 1   10,601 3   11 14,401   7 11,900 8 2,975   14 11,197 14 2,274 9,352 1,620 Slagle, Nelson
Stanley, Bob             9,832 12                   10 10,903 4 2,113 9,870 1,560 Stanley, Bob
Vasquez, Blake 6709 14         10,502 4                               Vasquez, Blake
                                            8,401 1,401 Young, Jeff
                                                 
EXPERTS: (7 local investment gurus)                                               EXPERTS: (7 local investment gurus)
Fabian, Douglas - Fabian Investment Resources             6,000 21                               Fabian, Douglas - Fabian Investment Resources
Sullivan, Dan, Chartist Newsletter             8,176 20                               Sullivan, Dan, Chartist Newsletter
Frank, Al - Al Frank Asset Mgt Inc.             9,000 18                               Frank, Al - Al Frank Asset Mgt Inc.
Blake, David - UCI grad school of management             10,200 7                               Blake, David - UCI grad school of management
Lisenbee, Gary - Metropolitan West Cap Mgt.             10,200 7                               Lisenbee, Gary - Metropolitan West Cap Mgt.
Check, Steve - Check Capital Mtg Inc.             10,300 6                               Check, Steve - Check Capital Mtg Inc.
Roth, Byron - Cruttenden Roth Inc.             10,500 5                               Roth, Byron - Cruttenden Roth Inc.
Canelo, Peter J - Morgan Stanley Dean Witter                   6 13,000                         Canelo, Peter J - Morgan Stanley Dean Witter
Garzarelli, Elaine - Garzarelli Capital, Inc                   3 12,600                         Garzarelli, Elaine - Garzarelli Capital, Inc
Orlando, Philip J. - CFA, Value Line Asset Mgt                   5 12,960                         Orlando, Philip J. - CFA, Value Line Asset Mgt
                                                 
FINAL YEAR END DOW JONES AVERAGE 7965     9181   11,497 228     10,788     10,022   1,951     8,342   1,336     FINAL YEAR END DOW JONES AVERAGE

 AL MANZEY WINS 6TH ANNUAL DOW JONES PREDICTIONS
 RANDY LANG WINS 2ND ANNUAL NASDAQ PREDICTIONS IN 2002
     Al Manzey won the Dow Jones prediction contest for the 2nd straight year.  He missed the final DJ closing
at 12-31-02 by 1758 points but that was good enough.  Randy Lang was 44% off the final NASDAQ
average but that was also good enough to win the title.  For the 6th straight year all pedictions were
either over the final averages of the year or below the final average of the year!!  Phil Hensley easily leads
the cum DJ predicts by averaging 3rd place in 6 years of predicting.  Al Manzey leads the
two year Nasdaq predicts with a 3rd place average finish, followed by Phil Hensley with a 5.5 avg place and
Jim 'Ohio' Slagle 6th place average.
     If form holds true the final DJ will be above the highest pick (Bob Stanley at 9870) or below the lowest
pick (Phil Hensley at 8123) at 12-31-03.  Sure hope it is higher!!!

 AL MANZEY WINS 5TH ANNUAL DOW JONES PREDICTIONS
 PHIL HENSLEY WINS FIRST NASDAQ PREDICTIONS IN 2001
     Al Manzey won the 5th annual Dow Jones prediction contest by guessing the Dow Jones to finish
at 10,401,   379 points over the final Dow Jones of 10,022 at 12-31-01.  Al edged Bob Scholl for the title by
3 points as Bob predicted 10,404.  Phil Hensley finished 3rd and is averaging 2.6 final placing for 5 years
to easily beat 5-year predictors  Nelson Slagle averaging 4.8 place and John Slagle averaging 6.8 place.
     For the second year in a row, all predictors were over the 12-31-01 Dow Jones finish.  In each of
the first three years all predictors were under the final Dow Jones 12-31-01 finish.
     Phil Hensley won the 2001 Nasdaq predictions with a guess of  2179, 218 points over the actual
12-31-01 finish of 1951.  Bob Scholl was 2nd with his 2244 prediction.

 PHIL HENSLEY IS 2000 DOW JONES PREDICTION CHAMP
     Phil Hensley won the annual Dow Jones Prediction contest in 2000 for his 2nd win in four years.  He
defeated runner-up Jim 'Ohio' Slagle by 98 points.  In 2000 all predictors overshot the final DJ average.
Phil was 12.5% above the final average of 10,788.  Every predictor was under the final average in the first
three years and every predictor was over the average in 2000.
     Phil is also the leading four year predictor with total places of 10 for the four years, followed by Nelson
Slagle with 17 and John Slagle with 25.
     You 12-31-2001 prediction is due by 1-1-2001.

       JOHN SLAGLE IS 1999 DOW JONES PREDICTION CHAMP
     John Slagle won the 1999 Dow Jones Prediction contest.  John had the
highest prediction for 1999 and won by 253 points over runner up Phil
Hensley.   The Dow Jones finished the year at 11497.  It marked the third
straight year that all predictors were short of the year end Dow Jones average.
The seven so called experts averaged 12th position out of 21 predictors while
the rest of us averaged 10th position.
     Nelson Slagle is the best three year predictor (3rd, 1st and 2nd) followed by
Phil Hensley (1st, 6th and 2nd) and John Slagle (7th, 5th and 1st).
Those three were also the top three predictors for 1999 out of 21 predictors.
     Still time to get your 12-31-2000 prediction to me.
 


Last Updated on 1/7/03
By Nelson Slagle
Email: neslagle@hotmail.com